Monday, January 22, 2007

Oscar Watch: Nominees predix, round 2

Thanks, y'all, for not pointing out that my countdown was a little off - it wasn't 36 hours until the announcement, but 42. I'll attribute my mistake to a 24 hour bug, not my missing math skills. In any case, now we're less than 18 hours away, and I've got my nomination predictions in the film, director and screenplay categories:

Best film:

  • Babel
  • The Departed
  • Dreamgirls
  • Letters from Iwo Jima
  • The Queen

Letters hasn't been out long, so it might slip under the Academy's radar - despite being one of the best-reviewed films of the year. Given the number of nominations in the SAGs and Globes, and its win from the Producer's Guild of America, it's very possible that Little Miss Sunshine will fill that spot instead.

Best director:

  • Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
  • Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima
  • Stephen Frears, The Queen
  • Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel
  • Martin Scorsese, The Departed

I'm sticking with Gonzalez Inarritu over Paul Greengrass (United 93), mainly because I think at least one of the three amigos needs to be nominated (the other two being Alfonso Cuaron for Children of Men and Guillermo Del Toro for Pan's Labyrinth), but don't be too surprised if Greengrass sneaks in. United 93 lost its buzz, but the Academy has been known to have a long memory, as with last year's Crash. I'd love it if Robert Altman were nominated for Prairie Home Companion, but it's the longest of long shots.

Best original screenplay:

  • Babel
  • Letters from Iwo Jima
  • Little Miss Sunshine
  • The Queen
  • United 93

I think this is probably where United 93 will be recognized, instead of in the Directors category. If there's an upset, look for either Volver or Stranger Than Fiction.

Best adapted screenplay:

  • The Departed
  • Dreamgirls
  • Little Children
  • Notes on a Scandal
  • Thank You For Smoking

Again, I'm counting on the Academy's long memory to nominate the much-loved Thank You For Smoking, which was released last spring. Alternates to TYFS might be The Devil Wears Prada or Prairie Home Companion.

Aaah. That's a relief. I doubt that I'll be up at 5:30 tomorrow morning, but I promise to give you a good reaction to the AMPAS nominations asap. Then I'll be back next Sunday for the Screen Actors Guild awards!

Edited by Lorelei at 12:35 pm.

Cate Blanchett and Brad Pitt in Babel, photo courtesy Paramount Classics; Jack Nicholson and Martin Scorsese from The Departed, photo courtesy Warner Bros; Ken Watanabe in Letters from Iwo Jima, photo courtesy Warner Bros; Eddie Murphy, Beyonce Knowles, Jennifer Hudson and Anika Noni Rose in Dreamgirls, photo courtesy DreamWorks Distribution LLC.

No comments: